Personal Finance Universe: When the levee breaks

Even average homeowners feel rising mortgage floodwaters

Last Update: 4:21 PM ET Nov 22, 2007

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- While the headlines have been full of stories on the credit crunch, subprime mortgage mess and the real estate bubble, a lot of ordinary homeowners have figured they were immune from the problems.

Ensconced in a home with a prime mortgage, they have watched the news and figured they're safe. And all the while, the water has been rising.

With property values dropping in many areas of the country, a growing number of homeowners -- particularly those who bought their house in the last five years -- are looking at the prospect of being "underwater" on the mortgage. That's when the value of the home is less than the amount remaining on the loan used to buy it.

So while the nation has been focused on a record-high rate of foreclosures, the tide has been rising on a lot of people who simply had bad timing. Zillow.com, an online real estate community, reported Tuesday that home values nationally are down more than 5.5% compared with a year ago, with many markets being hit much harder.

As a result, according to Zillow, more than 15% of homeowners nationwide who bought their home in the last year are now underwater. The number is slightly worse for consumers who bought their home two years ago. By comparison, the study showed that just under 2% of people who purchased a home five years ago have seen their equity go negative.

"We are so used to the fantasy that real estate is a great investment and that it always goes up in value that we're surprised when it doesn't," says Marc Eisenson of Good Advice Press, author of the 1980s classic "The Banker's Secret," the book which first taught Americans the value of prepaying mortgages and auto loans.

"This is a scary place to be, and a lot of people who never expected to get here are watching the waters rising -- particularly if they have adjustable-rate mortgages -- and their home values sinking."

Being underwater on a loan -- and it's increasingly common on auto loans in this country too -- is not really a function of interest rates and payments. The problem that adjustable-rate mortgages pose in this market is more psychological, in that the borrower's payments are likely to rise while the asset they are paying for is depreciating. The amount owed is the same before or after the adjustment, but the higher payments simply make the situation feel more helpless.

Riding it out

Thankfully, most experts suggest that negative home equity is not something that should cause a panic, assuming the homeowner can afford the current mortgage payment and has no reason to move.

"It could take five years or longer before this thing swings around, but as long as cash flow is positive -- so that you're making the payments and living life without worrying where the equity stands in your home -- you can ride this out," says Paul Richard, director of education at the Institute for Consumer Financial Education. "The question is whether you will want to hold on to your investment if you have lost 10% or 15% or more and don't see it turning around. ... You wouldn't want to do that with most mutual funds, but you will have to decide if you will do it with your house."

For most homeowners, selling the home doesn't necessarily solve the problem. After all, if they are underwater on the mortgage, they will need to bring cash to the closing. And while they may be able to buy the next home for a lot less -- due to the drop in home prices -- there is no guarantee they will get a good mortgage rate to make the deal happen.

Renting and waiting out the decline and the real estate cycle is an option, but more for the prospective home buyer rather than the person who is up to their neck on the mortgage.

"If you can afford the payments and bought in a market that you believe will go up, then the way out of this is to drive through it, keep making the payments and plan to hold on long enough so that it pays off," says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for BankRate.com. "It's only a real problem if you're going to have to sell the house in these conditions, or if you can't make the payment."

Watch your dollars

That said, most experts also believe that when the waters are coming closer to your personal shore, you might want to change a few behaviors, even if you plan to stay in the house and ride it out.

For starters, put off significant investments in the home. While real estate agents frequently say that certain home improvements "pay for themselves" when the home is sold, that's not the case in a market where home prices are shrinking and mortgages are underwater. Instead, you're simply adding more water.

Says Eisenson: "If you want a new bathroom while your house is underwater, you need to be really confident that you can ride things out. ... Right now, you're making the situation worse by putting more into the home at a time when you possibly won't make it back."

Next, bolster the emergency fund, just in case. It's not just financial problems making headlines, but economic ones; if the economy hits home in the form of job loss, at a time when the home is underwater, the choices you're facing are ugly. A bigger cash cushion will keep options open.

Experts disagree on whether you should pay off the mortgage faster when it's underwater; paying additional principal drops the water level, but that money is not coming back if you have to move and sell the house before the market rebounds. Paying down other debts, or putting excess cash into investments that will be positive while real estate is in the doldrums may do more to improve a homeowner's overall financial position.

Says Eisenson: "This situation is going to get worse before it gets better, so think about what you would do now. You'll probably decide to try to push through it, but if you're unprepared and you wake up one day to find out you're underwater, you're going to be scared."